Pointless 2021 Housing Market Predictions (Why You Shouldn't Care Anymore)

Certified Mortgage Advisor
NMLS 1701021
Published 
January 3, 2021

Why housing market don't have any changes

So you're scrolling through YouTube, minding your own business, and they know what's this another housing market video. I got to check this one out. So you open it and then you realize, yeah, it's still the same. Nothing's changed with the housing market, but these housing videos keep getting pushed further and further and further through YouTube.

FOMO

So we're going to talk about why I think these are kind of pointless. Why it's pointless to just talk about predictions with the housing market. So let's go ahead and jump into this. So when we see videos about the housing market, the main thing that gets kind of stirred up inside of us is this fear of missing out on this kind of FOMO thing.

It's this fear that we see something new, this new piece of information. Then maybe if we don't watch this, then we're going to miss this critical piece of information that other people know about. We're going to miss out on the secret. True. It's what our mind wants to tell us, but it's not actually accurate.

Why housing market videos gets high ranking on YouTube

Now YouTube is ranking a lot of these housing market videos, and I don't think that's a bad thing. It's showing, you know, that's what a lot of people want to watch our videos on the housing market, but the main reason why these are ranking so well is that it draws attention. The reason that it does is that whenever there's an emotional response, created that normally draws attention, that draws viewership and people watching things. That's why YouTube is kind of pushing a lot of this housing market crash, doomsday prepper-type videos out there.

Again, it's not necessarily a bad thing, but I want to talk about why this can kind of get us stuck in a place of action. So we also have to keep in mind that there are very real issues with the housing market and no way am I trying to downplay what's going on here?

Two main issues

The two main issues that we're seeing here are super low inventory that we're keeping prices increasing and increasing, and then also the potential for foreclosures. So we'll see that it's almost like the government's kind of propping up the impending foreclosure crisis by extending these moratoriums.

Predictions are not facts

Well, we have to keep in mind is that predictions are just that they are unknown their predictions or assumptions about the future based on current information. They're inherently not accurate. They could come true, but they're just not entirely accurate. So what's ending up happening is people are making tons of decisions and primarily they're actually making a decision not to make a decision or not make a plan because of what they're seeing in these types of videos. That's where it becomes dangerous.

It's not just the market, it's not taking action

So the problem is not just the market. The big problem is the inaction that fears cause. A lot of these videos are getting pushed out, which is perfectly fine for people to educate themselves about what's going on in the housing market. But often what ends up happening is it just creates inaction for people and they say, well, the housing market's probably going to crash, or it's going to have a correction or whatever is going to happen. So I'm just going to wait until then. And then what ends up happening is they don't do anything.

A good example of this is I know a guy who got into a land contract, cause he couldn't get a traditional mortgage over nine years ago. And then he contacted me a couple of months ago and still couldn't get a mortgage. He didn't do any work over that period of nine years because it was always the assumption that, in the future, things will change. The thing is that just doesn't happen and things don't just automatically change in the future. We actually have to create a game plan based on where we're at right now.

Not all you think could happen will happen

So, predictions can't lead us into creating a good game plan. They can only tell us a little bit about what we might expect in the future, but they're not actually going to direct us into creating a plan that's going to get us where we want to go. So getting us where we want to go first as a realization of recognizing what's happening now versus what do we want to happen in the future?

Predictions are just guides

So these predictions can help us understand a little bit about what's going on now, but they can't actually help us craft the bridge that gets us from now, into the future. What kind of savings plan are we creating? Where are we wanting to live? What's our job going to look like? What's our family, circumstance going to look like all of those things are part of your plan that predictions cannot help you with it.

Stop overthinking

Also, we're spending tons of energy on a simple question because we kind of complicate the housing market, issue a little bit, but we can dive into stats and economics and, and all of these theories and things, as long as we want to. But the ultimate question that home buyers are facing is do I buy now or do I buy later?

Don't dilly-dally when the time is right

We're spending a ton of time kind of beating around that bush beating around that question of, should we buy now or should we buy later. What we really want to do is we want to make sure we don't procrastinate for when the time is right. Because whether the answer for you is I'm ready to buy now, or I'm ready to buy it in the future.

Prepare for the right time

If right now you're at the point where you're saying, actually, I'm just going to wait. I'm not going to do anything. Then when the time actually is right, if there is a crash or a correction, and there's an opportunity for you to purchase in the future, whether that's one month from now or 10 years from now, or whatever that looks like for you, if you don't set up the steps to prepare you for that, you're not going to be ready.

So what might end up happening is you're watching these videos on a housing market crash. And the assumption that there would be a crash here in the future sometime, and then saying, well, I'm just going to kind of sit back and wait. But if your credit's in the spot where you're not actually going to be ready to purchase at that point, or you don't have the money saved up or, whatever else that could be, then those opportunities could arise and you're not actually going to be ready for.

Don't blame anyone/ anything for that vicious cycle, again

Then it's going to be the same cycle of saying, well, it's this other external thing's fault when in reality it was actually, I just didn't prepare adequately.

The Harm

So it's perfectly fine to do research, but we have to make sure we watch the extent that we're doing research on it. If we're just continuing to look at external factors going on, but never actually digging a little bit inside and seeing, okay, these things are going on outside. But what's actually in my control, I can't control what's happening with the housing market, but what I can control is how I prepare it with my money.

Make a plan

Now, keep in mind, I completely understand how the pandemic is affecting so many people where we're having, income losses and job losses and you know, illnesses and deaths. So obviously I'm not making light of that here, but there are things that we can directly control, and that's where we want to make that plan.

It's okay to pause

For some people, if you're facing that hardship, it's perfectly okay to put your plan on pause. You don't always have to be moving forward if you don't have the ability to do so right now.

Educate and take action

It's perfectly fine for you to watch information and learn about the economy and the market and what's going on. But is it actually actionable? That's what we really want to do. We want to make sure that the time and energy that we're spending is on things that can lead us into progress. Otherwise, we're just going to get a lot of information and not do anything with it. That's just going to lead to frustration. It's kind of this short-term thing. Our brain thinks that we're doing work by just learning instead of actually doing the work. And I'll talk about what that problem is called herein. A minute. So market videos aren't bad. Right? I make some videos on the housing market myself, but when we get consumed, without taking action without doing anything about it. That's when it becomes the problem.

Perspective of the buyer, the GOAL

Then also keep in mind, the goal of this channel is from the perspective of a buyer. It's the this is not like an economic channel. This is not an investing channel. So I'm not here to tell you about what you should capitalize on and with a foreclosure crisis and things like that.

My goal is to help you as a home buyer. What I really want you to do is understand that it's perfectly fine to learn about the housing market and to see all this, but don't sit and consume tons and tons and tons of information about it. Feel really emotionally agitated, and then not be able to take action with it because all these videos are telling you to just sit back and do nothing, and then everything's going to be okay. Because again, the opportunities presented themselves and you might not be ready.

Creative avoidance

So to me, the greatest harm that I keep seeing is that creative avoidance is when we know what we actually have to do to solve a problem in our life. But instead of tackling that we do something else, that's adjacent to something else that's like a creative adjacent solution that we use as a way to kind of temporarily act like we're working on the problem itself. A perfect example of that is what's happening with this housing market. I might know that the actual problem I need to fix is maybe my credit is too low to ever purchase a home.

You know, now, or in the next three years, I know that I need to work on that. So that's the case, creative avoidance is saying, well, if you just watch videos on the market, then that will, that's actually you kind of working on the problem. That's just not how it works. Our brain likes to do that because it's easy, our brains trying to, you know, expend as little energy as possible, but it's not actually leading us to a solution in the future.

What are we going to do instead

I'm not telling you that you need to go prep to buy a home. That's not what I'm saying. I know there's going to be people in the comments who are romancing, all realtors and loan officers just want to push people into buying homes no matter what, and that's not the case. I actually think it's probably going to be a good idea for you to wait a little bit. If you're not prepared to buy.

Create a plan

What I am saying is, you need to create an actual plan and that's going to look like so many different things for so many people. For some people, that's just going to be stopping excessive spending habits.

For some people that's just going to be resting and spending time with family amidst this pandemic for people it's gonna be paying off high-interest debt. For some people, it's going to be creating an emergency fund or saving up for a down payment and closing costs. It's going to be talking to a lender or realtor.

Take actions!

Your action plan looks like so many different things, but I can guarantee you. What's not part of an action plan is just watching videos and not taking any action to bring yourself into a place where you know that you're, you're going to attain the goal that you want for yourself and your family in the future.

Don't base your plan on things you can't control

So base your plan on internal factors. Not external, right? External factors are things that exist outside of us. This pandemic, the market, everything that's going on, interest rates, housing prices, those are external. I can't control those. You can't control those. So when we spend our time and energy, just trying to learn about it and try to pseudo control it, it doesn't do anything.

Control what's in front of you

The only thing that you can control is what's right in front of you, you can control your finances and how you spend your money and, and all of that. Okay. Also the, the breaks and the pauses that you take in there if you need those. So that's what I want you to focus on is really taking, you know, finding what you're consuming and actually creating an actionable plan with it. Just instead of just saying, well, I watched videos on the housing market, so, you know, I'm set for the next, however long, because I have this much time to work on my credit. So I'll work on it, then it will get better. Then I'll have my savings then. It just simply will not work like that when the opportunity presents itself for you to purchase.

#CalmMarket

So Let's take a deep breath. I actually have a quick meditation on the housing market. If you've never done meditation, it's going to be pretty fun and if you have done meditations, it's going to be a little bit interesting for you because we're going to basically bring some emotionality back into the home buying process. We're going to listen to not just this but listen to the whole rest of what's going on in your body by paying attention to it.

So if you text #CalmMarket, my phone number is (937) 358-6542. I will send you an audio link that is going to walk you through just a quick guided meditation that you can just sit down for a couple of minutes.

Take them, and then this is going to allow you to kind of debrief some of the housing market stress out of your life. Get a different perspective. That might be a little bit more holistic and help guide you to where you want to go.

Talk with a loan officer
Copyright © 2021 Win The House You Love LLC. All rights reserved.
Only for educational usage. All calculations should be verified independently. Win The House You Love LLC is not a lender, does not issue loan qualifications, and does not extend credit of any kind. This is not an offer to lend and should not be used to make decisions on home offers, purchasing decisions, nor loan selections. Not guaranteed to provide accurate results, imply lending terms, qualification amounts, nor real estate advice. Seek counsel from a licensed real estate agent, loan originator, financial planner, accountant, and/or attorney for real estate and/or financial advice. Read the full disclaimer here.